Phew! Every week in the financial markets feels like a battle for your mental health. Honestly, it makes sense why the TV series Billions had an in-house therapist (if you haven’t watched it yet, I highly recommend it!).
This week’s market recap and analysis for traders covers major U.S. economic events, including Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, stronger-than-expected PMI data, and rising unemployment claims—all of which shaped market sentiment and price action.
So what has happened so for this week ?
Most of the action this week came from the U.S. Here are the highlights:
- Flash PMI Data and Its Effect on Financial Markets
We saw stronger-than-expected PMI numbers: manufacturing at 53.3, services at 55.4%. This indicates expansion in both sectors. However, the impact of Trump’s tariffs is evident, as costs are being passed on to consumers (what a surprise!). - Unemployment Claims and Rate Cut Expectations
Claims came in higher than expected at 235K (previous: 226K). This suggests more people are on benefits, aligning with recent jobs data. Interestingly, this is positive for potential rate cuts. - Jackson Hole Symposium Highlights for Investors
The highlight of the week! Powell essentially confirmed the Fed’s dovish stance, increasing the odds of a rate cut in the September FOMC meeting.
Read the weekly outlook post where I shared what I was looking out for this week
Market reaction: How Powell’s Dovish Stance Impacted Markets
Throughout the week, the market sold to set up for buys todays. equites fell to previously broken highs, Gold and Palladium fell to support, Crypto ETH, BTC and XRP all fell to support.
Interestingly, both risk assets and safe-haven assets declined together—unusual, but that’s the market for you.
Today, after Powell’s speech, Dollar and Bond Yields weakened, US Indexes strengthened Traders now put about a 90% probability on a Fed rate cut in September, vs 75% before Powell’s remarks.
Position recap
Gold: I did not get an entry on gold this week. but we did see some upside.
Palladium: Closed an early position at a 2% loss, re-entered, and currently up about 2%.
Ethereum: Took a 2.5% loss early in the week, but scored a 15% win today. Thank you, Powell!
Looking Ahead
I’m still keeping my current position over the weekend but I’ll be talking more on what I’m looking out for next week in the weekly outlook post.
Till then, as usual, it’s Friday, take a break from your screen, connect with family and enjoy the weekend.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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