IOY Capital

Tag: Trade ideas

  • Midweek Market Recap: CPI, Trump, and What’s Next ?

    For the first half of the week, all eyes were on the almighty CPI. Why, you ask? Well, Trump has been putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates and hasn’t held back in expressing his views on Fed Chair Powell in the media. This comes on the heels of newly announced tariffs on various countries last week, which put the market in a cautious mood. Investors were watching closely to see if inflation would dip, potentially paving the way for a rate cut.

    What did we get?

    CPI year-over-year came in at 2.7%—lower than expected but unchanged from the previous reading. Month-over-month CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2%, but lower than the previous figure. Core CPI YoY surprised to the upside at 3.1%, while MoM was steady and met expectations.

    Stripping away the jargon: inflation data was broadly in line with market expectations. As a result, the market is now cautiously optimistic about a potential rate cut in September.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s having a good week.


    He’s gearing up for potential talks with Putin on Friday, making progress with China on tariff negotiations, and seeing an uptick in U.S. customs revenue—giving him bragging rights. He’s now claiming his tariffs aren’t inflationary and urging Powell to cut rates. Oh, and he also mentioned suing Powell over how he handled the Fed’s renovation—but that’s a story for another day.

    Back to the markets—how are they reacting, and what’s next?

    Optimism is building around a September rate cut. Treasuries are up, the dollar is down, and equities are climbing—classic signs of a risk-on environment. Looking ahead to Friday, retail sales data and the Trump-Putin conversation on Ukraine will be key. Keep an eye on oil.

    My next moves

    Like James Bond, I’m waiting patiently to catch the full risk-on wave. Markets are currently elevated—too rich for my blood. I’m cautiously long on palladium and watching closely for entry points in oil.

    Palladium

    Oil

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions

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  • August Market Watch – 4 Stocks I’m Tracking

    Welcome to August!
    This month, I’m closely watching four stocks that I believe offer compelling opportunities. These are risk-on plays, all benefiting from what appears to be a faint light at the end of the tunnel in the ongoing tariff wars—though resolution still seems far off.

    Here’s what I’m tracking:

    1. Tesla(TSLA): Tesla’s Q2 2025 earnings beat expectations. There’s growing excitement around its robotaxi innovation, and the market is gradually adjusting to the Trump-era tariffs. These developments make Tesla a stock worth watching this month .https://www.tradingview.com/x/SSmHsst8/
    1. Micron Technologies(MU): Micron has outperformed earnings for two consecutive quarters. While it shares the semiconductor space with giants like NVIDIA, it hasn’t been left behind. Analysts have upgraded it from “Hold” to “Buy,” and I’m considering tagging along for the ride.
    1. Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO): SCCO, a major player in copper, silver, and zinc production, has posted strong earnings recently. It’s also benefiting from rising gold demand, which has shown a direct correlation. Technically, it’s at a favourable entry point.
    1. Ambiq Micro.inc (Ambiq): A fresh IPO from last week, Ambiq is a semiconductor company focused on ultra-low-power solutions. With global interest—especially from China and other regions—this could be a promising growth stock.

    That’s all for now.
    I haven’t entered any positions yet, but I’ll be monitoring these names throughout the month. Expect an update at the end of August. BTW, all stocks as at this time are halal.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions