The second half of the week came in hot, with two major events on our radar: the Producer Price Index (PPI) release and the Trump-Putin meeting.
PPI: A Surprise Upside
We got better-than-expected PPI data, which begs the question—are we finally seeing the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs? It’s a valid consideration, and one that could weigh heavily on policymakers as they decide whether to cut rates in September. Personally, I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes right now—lol.
Trump Meets Putin: All Optics, No Substance
The Trump-Putin meeting wasn’t really giving, to be honest. The most dramatic moment? Trump flexing with a stealth bomber flying over Putin’s head. That was a serious power move. But beyond the theatrics, there wasn’t much substance. We heard there was “progress,” but no concrete outcomes. Must be nice to be rich enough to fly across the globe for a meeting and leave with nothing definitive.
Weekly Market Wrap
Risk-on assets ended the week in the red. Equities, crypto, the DXY, and precious metals all closed lower. I wasn’t spared either—woke up to my palladium trade down 1.82%. If anyone’s hiring, I’m available!
That’s all for this week. Enjoy your weekend, and let’s regroup on Monday for our weekly outlook.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions
For the first half of the week, all eyes were on the almighty CPI. Why, you ask? Well, Trump has been putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates and hasn’t held back in expressing his views on Fed Chair Powell in the media. This comes on the heels of newly announced tariffs on various countries last week, which put the market in a cautious mood. Investors were watching closely to see if inflation would dip, potentially paving the way for a rate cut.
What did we get?
CPI year-over-year came in at 2.7%—lower than expected but unchanged from the previous reading. Month-over-month CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2%, but lower than the previous figure. Core CPI YoY surprised to the upside at 3.1%, while MoM was steady and met expectations.
Stripping away the jargon: inflation data was broadly in line with market expectations. As a result, the market is now cautiously optimistic about a potential rate cut in September.
Meanwhile, Trump’s having a good week.
He’s gearing up for potential talks with Putin on Friday, making progress with China on tariff negotiations, and seeing an uptick in U.S. customs revenue—giving him bragging rights. He’s now claiming his tariffs aren’t inflationary and urging Powell to cut rates. Oh, and he also mentioned suing Powell over how he handled the Fed’s renovation—but that’s a story for another day.
Back to the markets—how are they reacting, and what’s next?
Optimism is building around a September rate cut. Treasuries are up, the dollar is down, and equities are climbing—classic signs of a risk-on environment. Looking ahead to Friday, retail sales data and the Trump-Putin conversation on Ukraine will be key. Keep an eye on oil.
My next moves
Like James Bond, I’m waiting patiently to catch the full risk-on wave. Markets are currently elevated—too rich for my blood. I’m cautiously long on palladium and watching closely for entry points in oil.
Palladium
Oil
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions
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Tariffs, Bitcoin, Oil, and Global Tensions — Here’s What I’m Watching
Phew. The last 48 hours have been a whirlwind. If the markets were a soap opera, this week’s episode would be titled “Tariffs, Tanks, and Token Surges.” From Trump’s tariff tantrum to Bitcoin’s moon mission, oil’s dramatic flair, and Middle Eastern tensions that just won’t quit—where do we even begin?
Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: Now Featuring Canada
In a move that surprised absolutely no one who’s followed Trump’s economic playbook, he’s decided to hit Canada with a 35% tariff—because nothing says “friendly neighbor” like a trade war. The announcement came via a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney (yes, the former Bank of England governor turned Canadian PM—plot twist!).
Meanwhile, the rest of the world gets a 15% tariff starting August 1st, because apparently, global economic diplomacy is now a game of Oprah’s Favorite Things:
“You get a tariff! You get a tariff! Everybody gets a tariff!”
Canada is already in talks with the U.S.
The EU is sharpening its negotiation pencils.
Expect more drama than a season finale of Succession.
Bitcoin: To the Moon, Past Pluto, and Into Your Group Chat
Bitcoin has officially hit an all-time high of $118,000. That’s right—while some were still debating whether crypto is “real,” it quietly liquidated millions in short positions and left skeptics clutching their fiat pearls.
“In your faces, non-believers.” — Me, smugly sipping coffee
With trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty swirling, Bitcoin has become the financial equivalent of a bunker stocked with canned beans and Wi-Fi. I’ve said it before: digital currency is here to stay. Time to stop ignoring it like that gym membership you swore you’d use.
Oil & Energy: Powered by Tension and Summer Road Trips
Oil prices and energy ETFs are climbing faster than your AC bill in July. Why?
Seasonal demand (hello, road trips and backyard BBQs)
Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels (because apparently, global shipping needed another villain)
The result? A bullish energy sector and a lot of analysts pretending they saw this coming.
Market Mood: Risk-Off and Running for Cover
So, how’s the market reacting to all this chaos?
Gold is up 2.5% this week, because when in doubt, hoard shiny things.
S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all down —Wall Street’s version of a group sigh but probably dip buying on risky assets.
Bitcoin is partying like it’s 2021.
Clearly, we’re in a risk-off environment, where investors are clutching their safe havens and whispering sweet nothings to their gold bars.
My Game Plan: Calm, Calculated, and Caffeinated
Here’s how I’m playing this:
Gold: I expect cooler heads to prevail as countries dial into Trump’s hotline before the August deadline. I’m anticipating a pullback in gold and sticking to my previous plan.
Energy (XLE): I’m riding the XLE ETF(Halal for muslim investors) up to the 93.5 handle, unless the fundamentals change or the charts start speaking in tongues.
Bitcoin: We missed the ideal buy setups. Now, I’m waiting for a pullback to re-enter. No FOMO here—just patience and popcorn.
Final Thoughts: Don’t Trade the Weekend
It’s the weekend. No need to chase trades like they’re the last slice of pizza. Spend time with friends, family, or your favorite chart pattern. The market will still be here on Monday—probably with more drama.
Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Or don’t. But don’t say I didn’t warn you.
📰 Market Recap: Tariffs, Safe Havens, and Nvidia’s Move
Yesterday, markets reacted to Trump’s tariff announcements targeting several smaller economies. While these aren’t major players, the headlines were enough to spark a shift into safe havens like gold (XAU) and away from risk assetsincluding XSD, XLE, and SPUS.
Interestingly, the market appears to be shrugging off the news today. One headline-grabber: Nvidia’s market cap has surged to $4 trillion — showing continued bullish sentiment in tech despite macro uncertainty.
🏦 Fed Watch: Rate Cut Uncertainty
The Fed statement today revealed a clear split on when rate cuts will occur. The key issue? Inflation risks from new tariffs.
Despite June’s reported drop in inflation, the Fed is hesitant to move on cuts in July — choosing instead to watch how things develop later in the year.
This comes even as Trump is ramping up pressure for cuts, adding another layer of political tension to the Fed’s decision-making.
🎯 What We’re Watching Now
The main focus going forward is twofold:
Tariff-related developments
Signals on potential rate cuts
In this environment, I expect optimism to dominate the market — not because conditions are great, but because there’s simply no other big bearish catalyst in play right now.
📌 Trade Setup: Gold and XLE
🟡 Gold (XAU)
I’m eyeing a potential buy zone in the $3,200–$3,250 handle, but only if there’s a strong fundamental bias — like further escalation in tariffs or clearer signals of rate cuts.
🔋 XLE
While we wait for gold to hit our levels, there may be opportunities to capitalize on market optimism via XLE. I’m watching for good entry points there.
Stay tuned — I’ll post more detailed setups as these plays evolve.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
