IOY Capital

Tag: PCE data

  • Midweek Market Recap: Trump vs. The Fed, Nvidia’s Surprise, and What’s Next

    It’s midweek, markets have closed for the day, and so far, I can confidently say: Trump really has it in for the Fed.

    Quick Recap

    The week started strong with housing data coming in at 652K, beating expectations of 635K, though slightly below the previous 656K. A positive start as markets eagerly awaited Nvidia’s earnings.

    But the real story? Trump vs. The Fed. After taking aim at Fed Chair Powell with little traction, Trump has now targeted Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud prior to her appointment. This is a big deal, investors rely on the Fed’s independence, and Trump’s decision to remove her pending investigation raises serious concerns.

    We’ve also seen headlines about:

    • Trump plans a White House meeting on Gaza ahead of the UN summit in September.
    • Advocating for oil prices to hover around $60 per barrel.
    • EU considering new sanctions on Russia.
    • Mexico slapping tariffs on Chinese goods under the guise of boosting local production—a classic Trump-style move.

    And then came Nvidia’s earnings:
    Revenue hit $46.7 billion, beating estimates of $46.2 billion. Yet, the stock dropped post-report. Why? Investors expected more. Plus, we learned the U.S. government will take 15% of all Nvidia H20 sales to China—a stark reminder of the cost of doing business in the U.S.

    Market Reaction

    Since the start of the week, markets have been optimistic, as we discussed in our Market Outlook post. Equities have been pushing higher in anticipation of Nvidia’s earnings (can’t wait to see how the market opens tomorrow) and my positions are still in play.

    • ETH is up about 9% after reaching a whooping 19% on Sunday. Take profit kids
    • Closed out PALL (Palladium) at a 1.5% loss after an early-week pullback.
    • Entered a position in XRP after a dip, riding the market optimism and we are currently up about 3%

    What’s Next?

    Key events to watch:
    Thursday:

    • Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech
    • Unemployment data
    • GDP data

    Friday:

    • PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data

    I’ll be monitoring these closely while managing positions.

    Final Thoughts

    We’re sitting at all-time highs, and chatter about a looming recession or market crash is getting louder. Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire—so stay cautious and trade smart.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Trades shared are for educational purposes only. IOY Capital is not responsible for any investment decisions you choose to make.

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  • Weekly Market Outlook – August 25, 2025

    Last week wrapped up on a strong note, with markets hitting new highs following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. This bullish momentum worked in favour of our positions and set a positive tone heading into the new week.

    What to Watch This Week

    Although the economic calendar looks relatively light, there are a few key events that could influence market direction:

    • Monday: Housing data release
    • Thursday:
      • Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller
      • Unemployment data
      • GDP data
    • Friday: PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data

    The PCE and unemployment figures will be crucial in shaping expectations around a potential rate cut in September. I’m particularly interested in Governor Waller’s speech, as she is reportedly one of Donald Trump’s top picks to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.

    My Personal Outlook

    This week, I’m leaning bullish—but with caution.

    I saw some upside last week with PALL and ETHE, and I’m still holding those positions (though I probably should have closed them on Friday). I’ll be monitoring the market closely and will share any new opportunities in my midweek update. currently looking to get some opportunities in Xrp to follow the trend.

    Market Sentiment & Macro Risks

    One important observation: the market is currently more stretched than during the Dotcom bubble. Several analysts are forecasting a recession within the next 12 months.

    This isn’t a reason to panic or stop trading—it’s a reminder to stay sharp, listen to market signals, and remain adaptable. Keep your ears to the ground and stay informed.

    Stay Tuned

    I’ll be back with more insights in the midweek post, including trade updates and fresh opportunities.

    🔒 Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Trades shared are for educational purposes only. IOY Capital is not responsible for any investment decisions you choose to make.