IOY Capital

Tag: Market Insight

  • September Stock Pick: Top 3 Stock Picks for September 2025: SMCI, Asana & Meta Analysis

    September Stock Pick: Top 3 Stock Picks for September 2025: SMCI, Asana & Meta Analysis

    Welcome to the September edition of our monthly stock picks! If you’re looking for the best stocks to buy in September, you’re in the right place. This month, we’re building on August’s lessons to maintain, and hopefully improve profitability.

    We’ve identified three stocks with strong upside potential for September:

    • Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)
    • Asana (ASAN)
    • Meta (META)

    These picks combine AI-driven growth, technical setups, and fundamental strength. Plus two of them qualify as halal stock picks for ethical investors.

    1. Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)Halal

    Why SMCI?
    Super Micro is a leading AI hardware company, providing storage and server solutions for AI training and inference using GPU-based architectures.

    Recent Performance:
    SMCI dropped from $58 to around $39 last month due to a sector-wide AI pullback and internal challenges. In its annual report, the company admitted:

    “We have identified material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting, which could, if not remediated, adversely affect our ability to report our financial condition and results of operations in a timely and accurate manner.”

    This disclosure contributed to a 5.5% decline.

    Why It Still Has Potential:
    Despite these issues, analysts maintain a buy or hold rating on SMCI.

    Technical Analysis:
    The stock is sitting at a strong support zone ($39–$40), which aligns with the 200-day moving average. I’m looking to buy at this level and hold. If the support fails, I’ll adjust my strategy.

    2. Asana (ASAN) Halal

    Asana is a work management platform that integrates human and AI collaboration. While the stock has been in a downtrend for most of 2025, it has a strong track record of beating earnings expectations—including last quarter by 0.9%.

    Catalyst:
    Asana reports earnings this Wednesday, and we’re looking to capitalize on potential optimism.

    Technical Setup:
    The stock is near its lowest support level, creating a possible buying opportunity if the support holds.

    3. Meta (META) Doubtful

    Meta, Mark Zuckerberg’s flagship company, dominates social media, virtual reality, and AI innovation.

    Fundamentals:
    Meta beat Q2 earnings estimates and remains a strong player in the AI race.

    Technical Analysis:
    The stock recently pulled back to a previous support level and looks ready to resume its uptrend.

    Final Thoughts

    September offers exciting stock market opportunities, but as always, risk management is key. I’ll be monitoring these setups closely and adjusting as needed.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on market events. Trade Ideas shared are for educational purposes only. IOY Capital is not responsible for any investment decisions you choose to make.

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  • Weekly Market Recap: Powell’s Dovish Stance, PMI Data & Market Reactions

    Weekly Market Recap: Powell’s Dovish Stance, PMI Data & Market Reactions

    Phew! Every week in the financial markets feels like a battle for your mental health. Honestly, it makes sense why the TV series Billions had an in-house therapist (if you haven’t watched it yet, I highly recommend it!).

    This week’s market recap and analysis for traders covers major U.S. economic events, including Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, stronger-than-expected PMI data, and rising unemployment claims—all of which shaped market sentiment and price action.

    So what has happened so for this week ?

    Most of the action this week came from the U.S. Here are the highlights:

    • Flash PMI Data and Its Effect on Financial Markets
      We saw stronger-than-expected PMI numbers: manufacturing at 53.3, services at 55.4%. This indicates expansion in both sectors. However, the impact of Trump’s tariffs is evident, as costs are being passed on to consumers (what a surprise!).
    • Unemployment Claims and Rate Cut Expectations
      Claims came in higher than expected at 235K (previous: 226K). This suggests more people are on benefits, aligning with recent jobs data. Interestingly, this is positive for potential rate cuts.
    • Jackson Hole Symposium Highlights for Investors
      The highlight of the week! Powell essentially confirmed the Fed’s dovish stance, increasing the odds of a rate cut in the September FOMC meeting.

    Read the weekly outlook post where I shared what I was looking out for this week

    Market reaction: How Powell’s Dovish Stance Impacted Markets

    Throughout the week, the market sold to set up for buys todays. equites fell to previously broken highs, Gold and Palladium fell to support, Crypto ETH, BTC and XRP all fell to support.

    Interestingly, both risk assets and safe-haven assets declined together—unusual, but that’s the market for you.

    Today, after Powell’s speech, Dollar and Bond Yields weakened, US Indexes strengthened Traders now put about a 90% probability on a Fed rate cut in September, vs 75% before Powell’s remarks.

    Position recap

    Gold: I did not get an entry on gold this week. but we did see some upside.

    Gold and Palladium Price Analysis

    Palladium: Closed an early position at a 2% loss, re-entered, and currently up about 2%.

    Gold and Palladium Price Analysis

    Ethereum: Took a 2.5% loss early in the week, but scored a 15% win today. Thank you, Powell!

    Ethereum Price Action and Crypto Market Trends

    Looking Ahead

    I’m still keeping my current position over the weekend but I’ll be talking more on what I’m looking out for next week in the weekly outlook post.

    Till then, as usual, it’s Friday, take a break from your screen, connect with family and enjoy the weekend.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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  • What a Week! PPI Surprises, Power Moves, and Red Markets !!!

    The second half of the week came in hot, with two major events on our radar: the Producer Price Index (PPI) release and the Trump-Putin meeting.

    PPI: A Surprise Upside

    We got better-than-expected PPI data, which begs the question—are we finally seeing the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs? It’s a valid consideration, and one that could weigh heavily on policymakers as they decide whether to cut rates in September. Personally, I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes right now—lol.

    Trump Meets Putin: All Optics, No Substance

    The Trump-Putin meeting wasn’t really giving, to be honest. The most dramatic moment? Trump flexing with a stealth bomber flying over Putin’s head. That was a serious power move. But beyond the theatrics, there wasn’t much substance. We heard there was “progress,” but no concrete outcomes. Must be nice to be rich enough to fly across the globe for a meeting and leave with nothing definitive.

    Weekly Market Wrap

    Risk-on assets ended the week in the red. Equities, crypto, the DXY, and precious metals all closed lower. I wasn’t spared either—woke up to my palladium trade down 1.82%. If anyone’s hiring, I’m available!

    That’s all for this week. Enjoy your weekend, and let’s regroup on Monday for our weekly outlook.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions

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  • Midweek Market Recap: CPI, Trump, and What’s Next ?

    For the first half of the week, all eyes were on the almighty CPI. Why, you ask? Well, Trump has been putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates and hasn’t held back in expressing his views on Fed Chair Powell in the media. This comes on the heels of newly announced tariffs on various countries last week, which put the market in a cautious mood. Investors were watching closely to see if inflation would dip, potentially paving the way for a rate cut.

    What did we get?

    CPI year-over-year came in at 2.7%—lower than expected but unchanged from the previous reading. Month-over-month CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2%, but lower than the previous figure. Core CPI YoY surprised to the upside at 3.1%, while MoM was steady and met expectations.

    Stripping away the jargon: inflation data was broadly in line with market expectations. As a result, the market is now cautiously optimistic about a potential rate cut in September.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s having a good week.


    He’s gearing up for potential talks with Putin on Friday, making progress with China on tariff negotiations, and seeing an uptick in U.S. customs revenue—giving him bragging rights. He’s now claiming his tariffs aren’t inflationary and urging Powell to cut rates. Oh, and he also mentioned suing Powell over how he handled the Fed’s renovation—but that’s a story for another day.

    Back to the markets—how are they reacting, and what’s next?

    Optimism is building around a September rate cut. Treasuries are up, the dollar is down, and equities are climbing—classic signs of a risk-on environment. Looking ahead to Friday, retail sales data and the Trump-Putin conversation on Ukraine will be key. Keep an eye on oil.

    My next moves

    Like James Bond, I’m waiting patiently to catch the full risk-on wave. Markets are currently elevated—too rich for my blood. I’m cautiously long on palladium and watching closely for entry points in oil.

    Palladium

    Oil

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions

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  • August Market Watch – 4 Stocks I’m Tracking

    Welcome to August!
    This month, I’m closely watching four stocks that I believe offer compelling opportunities. These are risk-on plays, all benefiting from what appears to be a faint light at the end of the tunnel in the ongoing tariff wars—though resolution still seems far off.

    Here’s what I’m tracking:

    1. Tesla(TSLA): Tesla’s Q2 2025 earnings beat expectations. There’s growing excitement around its robotaxi innovation, and the market is gradually adjusting to the Trump-era tariffs. These developments make Tesla a stock worth watching this month .https://www.tradingview.com/x/SSmHsst8/
    1. Micron Technologies(MU): Micron has outperformed earnings for two consecutive quarters. While it shares the semiconductor space with giants like NVIDIA, it hasn’t been left behind. Analysts have upgraded it from “Hold” to “Buy,” and I’m considering tagging along for the ride.
    1. Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO): SCCO, a major player in copper, silver, and zinc production, has posted strong earnings recently. It’s also benefiting from rising gold demand, which has shown a direct correlation. Technically, it’s at a favourable entry point.
    1. Ambiq Micro.inc (Ambiq): A fresh IPO from last week, Ambiq is a semiconductor company focused on ultra-low-power solutions. With global interest—especially from China and other regions—this could be a promising growth stock.

    That’s all for now.
    I haven’t entered any positions yet, but I’ll be monitoring these names throughout the month. Expect an update at the end of August. BTW, all stocks as at this time are halal.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions

  • Market Pulse: A Cautious Start to the Week

    We’re starting the week on a slow note—like a Monday morning in Lagos. But don’t be fooled, there’s still plenty happening beneath the surface. Let’s take a quick look back at last week, what’s on the radar this week, and how I’m positioning myself in the current market environment.

    🔙 Last Week in Review

    Last week, we got CPI data from both Canada and the U.S. The results? Nothing exciting. Month-over-month numbers were flat—like jollof rice without pepper. Basically, this confirmed that rate cuts are not coming anytime soon, maybe later in the year if the economy behaves.

    Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales came in stronger than expected. Americans are still spending like they don’t have rent to pay. Good for the economy, bad for those hoping for quick rate cuts.

    However, the real market focus wasn’t on the data—it was on Trump. Investors were glued to headlines about his proposed tariffs and his threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. That drama overshadowed everything else.

    📅 What’s Ahead This Week

    This week’s economic calendar is light, so attention remains on:

    • Trump’s “I might fire Powell” drama
    • Ongoing tariff negotiations
    • Powell’s speech (which ended up being empty—no economic gist)
    • The start of earnings season

    So far, nothing major has happened. Trump now says he wants Powell out in eight months—basically when his term ends. So, no real firing, just political noise. Negotiations are still dragging, and Powell’s speech today? Zero economic content. We’re now waiting for earnings to bring some real movement.

    🧠 Market Sentiment

    The market is still in risk-off mode:

    • Inflation concerns from Trump’s tariff threats are being priced in.
    • Uncertainty around Powell’s future is keeping investors cautious.
    • Overall, the market is starting the week on edge.

    📊 Technical Picture

    • Gold is testing the $3,400 level, approaching previous highs and resistance.
    • U.S. 10-Year Yields are falling and testing support levels.
    • Dollar Index (DXY) is also down, sitting at key support on the 4-hour chart.

    🔮 My Outlook

    🧩 Fundamentals

    Trump seems to be softening his tone on Powell. While there’s still risk around unresolved negotiations with the EU, talks with China appear to be progressing, and Trump sounds optimistic. If that continues, we could see a shift in market sentiment—from “God abeg” to “maybe we go dey alright.”

    📈 Technicals

    We’re at support levels for both DXY and 10-year yields, while Gold is at resistance. If earnings come in strong, I expect risk assets to move higher.

    💼 My Strategy

    I’m looking at XLE and XSD for buy opportunities. Gold hasn’t given me a good entry point yet to tag along for the, so I’m staying patient and watching closely. 

    Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this update, feel free to share it or subscribe for more weekly insights. Let’s keep making sense of the markets—one gist at a time.

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    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Markets, Tariffs, and a Bit of Breathing Room. Gold sells and XSD buys

    I think most people would agree that ever since Trump became president, the world has been on a roller coaster—and it doesn’t look like the ride is ending anytime soon. But for now, we navigate the markets with a mix of swing trades and precision.

    Yesterday, Trump announced an extension of the tariff deadline to August. That move gave the markets a bit of breathing room and sparked some optimism. On that news, I looked for buying opportunities in XSD, and we’re currently up about 3%, which is a solid move.

    Things are quiet for now, so I’m holding my position. Looking ahead, we’ve got the FOMC meeting minutes coming out tomorrow. I’m not expecting any major surprises there—most signs point to the next rate cut happening in September. However, keep an eye on unemployment claims—that’s the one to watch.

    Disclaimer:
    This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.