IOY Capital

Tag: Jackson Hole Symposium

  • Weekly Market Outlook – August 25, 2025

    Last week wrapped up on a strong note, with markets hitting new highs following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. This bullish momentum worked in favour of our positions and set a positive tone heading into the new week.

    What to Watch This Week

    Although the economic calendar looks relatively light, there are a few key events that could influence market direction:

    • Monday: Housing data release
    • Thursday:
      • Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller
      • Unemployment data
      • GDP data
    • Friday: PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data

    The PCE and unemployment figures will be crucial in shaping expectations around a potential rate cut in September. I’m particularly interested in Governor Waller’s speech, as she is reportedly one of Donald Trump’s top picks to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.

    My Personal Outlook

    This week, I’m leaning bullish—but with caution.

    I saw some upside last week with PALL and ETHE, and I’m still holding those positions (though I probably should have closed them on Friday). I’ll be monitoring the market closely and will share any new opportunities in my midweek update. currently looking to get some opportunities in Xrp to follow the trend.

    Market Sentiment & Macro Risks

    One important observation: the market is currently more stretched than during the Dotcom bubble. Several analysts are forecasting a recession within the next 12 months.

    This isn’t a reason to panic or stop trading—it’s a reminder to stay sharp, listen to market signals, and remain adaptable. Keep your ears to the ground and stay informed.

    Stay Tuned

    I’ll be back with more insights in the midweek post, including trade updates and fresh opportunities.

    🔒 Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Trades shared are for educational purposes only. IOY Capital is not responsible for any investment decisions you choose to make.

  • Weekly Market Recap: Powell’s Dovish Stance, PMI Data & Market Reactions

    Weekly Market Recap: Powell’s Dovish Stance, PMI Data & Market Reactions

    Phew! Every week in the financial markets feels like a battle for your mental health. Honestly, it makes sense why the TV series Billions had an in-house therapist (if you haven’t watched it yet, I highly recommend it!).

    This week’s market recap and analysis for traders covers major U.S. economic events, including Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, stronger-than-expected PMI data, and rising unemployment claims—all of which shaped market sentiment and price action.

    So what has happened so for this week ?

    Most of the action this week came from the U.S. Here are the highlights:

    • Flash PMI Data and Its Effect on Financial Markets
      We saw stronger-than-expected PMI numbers: manufacturing at 53.3, services at 55.4%. This indicates expansion in both sectors. However, the impact of Trump’s tariffs is evident, as costs are being passed on to consumers (what a surprise!).
    • Unemployment Claims and Rate Cut Expectations
      Claims came in higher than expected at 235K (previous: 226K). This suggests more people are on benefits, aligning with recent jobs data. Interestingly, this is positive for potential rate cuts.
    • Jackson Hole Symposium Highlights for Investors
      The highlight of the week! Powell essentially confirmed the Fed’s dovish stance, increasing the odds of a rate cut in the September FOMC meeting.

    Read the weekly outlook post where I shared what I was looking out for this week

    Market reaction: How Powell’s Dovish Stance Impacted Markets

    Throughout the week, the market sold to set up for buys todays. equites fell to previously broken highs, Gold and Palladium fell to support, Crypto ETH, BTC and XRP all fell to support.

    Interestingly, both risk assets and safe-haven assets declined together—unusual, but that’s the market for you.

    Today, after Powell’s speech, Dollar and Bond Yields weakened, US Indexes strengthened Traders now put about a 90% probability on a Fed rate cut in September, vs 75% before Powell’s remarks.

    Position recap

    Gold: I did not get an entry on gold this week. but we did see some upside.

    Gold and Palladium Price Analysis

    Palladium: Closed an early position at a 2% loss, re-entered, and currently up about 2%.

    Gold and Palladium Price Analysis

    Ethereum: Took a 2.5% loss early in the week, but scored a 15% win today. Thank you, Powell!

    Ethereum Price Action and Crypto Market Trends

    Looking Ahead

    I’m still keeping my current position over the weekend but I’ll be talking more on what I’m looking out for next week in the weekly outlook post.

    Till then, as usual, it’s Friday, take a break from your screen, connect with family and enjoy the weekend.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    Subscribe for more market insights, and commentary.

    Subscribe