IOY Capital

Tag: Investing

  • Weekly Market Recap: Trump’s Friday Curveball

    It basically seems like Fridays are the days Trump decides to throw a wrench into the optimism he’s built up during the week—because seriously, what is bro talking about today?

    Let’s take a step back and review what’s happened this week. Overall, it’s been relatively light, with markets primarily focused on:

    📌 Tariff Talk: From Optimism to Uncertainty

    Trump kicked off the week with upbeat comments like:

    • “Biggest deal with Japan”
    • “Deal with the EU is making progress”

    But by Friday, the tone had shifted:

    • “Deal with Canada? Not sure.”
    • “EU deal is a 50-50.”

    A very polarized individual, I must say. To add to the confusion, Japan responded by saying Trump exaggerated the details and that no written agreement exists. So, there’s that.

    🏦 Powell and the Fed

    Trump visited the Fed’s renovation project and made remarks about Jerome Powell. As predicted, he’s backtracked on firing Powell and will likely let him finish his term.

    💼 Earnings Season Kickoff

    Earnings season began this week with mixed results:

    • Tesla fell short of projections.
    • Alphabet Inc. (Google’s parent company) exceeded consensus expectations.

    📈 Market Reaction

    Despite the mixed signals, the market maintained a risk-on mood throughout the week, ending on a positive note:

    My portfolio closed the week up 2%, thanks to the XLE trade.

    🔭 Looking Ahead

    Heading into the weekend, I’ll be watching for updates on the U.S.-EU trade talks and how markets respond in the new week.

    🧘 Weekend Vibes

    It’s the weekend—time to take a step back, relax with a glass of sparkling wine and some chicken, go for a run or a walk, and enjoy the break.

    See you next week with our weekly outlook and trade ideas.

    Cheers,
    Olakunle Yusuf

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • 📈 Trade Update: Tariffs, Safe Havens, and What Comes Next

    Following up on my earlier post — Markets, Tariffs, and a Bit of Breathing Room — I’m happy to report that we’ve hit our target on XSD, banking a solid 3% win on the trade.

    So, what’s next?

    📰 Market Recap: Tariffs, Safe Havens, and Nvidia’s Move

    Yesterday, markets reacted to Trump’s tariff announcements targeting several smaller economies. While these aren’t major players, the headlines were enough to spark a shift into safe havens like gold (XAU) and away from risk assetsincluding XSD, XLE, and SPUS.

    Interestingly, the market appears to be shrugging off the news today. One headline-grabber: Nvidia’s market cap has surged to $4 trillion — showing continued bullish sentiment in tech despite macro uncertainty.

    🏦 Fed Watch: Rate Cut Uncertainty

    The Fed statement today revealed a clear split on when rate cuts will occur. The key issue? Inflation risks from new tariffs.

    Despite June’s reported drop in inflation, the Fed is hesitant to move on cuts in July — choosing instead to watch how things develop later in the year.

    This comes even as Trump is ramping up pressure for cuts, adding another layer of political tension to the Fed’s decision-making.

    🎯 What We’re Watching Now

    The main focus going forward is twofold:

    • Tariff-related developments
    • Signals on potential rate cuts

    In this environment, I expect optimism to dominate the market — not because conditions are great, but because there’s simply no other big bearish catalyst in play right now.

    📌 Trade Setup: Gold and XLE

    🟡 Gold (XAU)

    I’m eyeing a potential buy zone in the $3,200–$3,250 handle, but only if there’s a strong fundamental bias — like further escalation in tariffs or clearer signals of rate cuts.

    🔋 XLE

    While we wait for gold to hit our levels, there may be opportunities to capitalize on market optimism via XLE. I’m watching for good entry points there.

    Stay tuned — I’ll post more detailed setups as these plays evolve.

    Disclaimer:
    This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.