IOY Capital

Tag: Halal trading

  • September Market Outlook: Key Events, Trends, and What to Watch

    Welcome to a new trading week and the start of September! Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for stocks and equities, so we might be starting with a slight disadvantage.

    Last Week’s Market Recap

    Last week ended on a negative note for equities. While we saw some upside earlier in the week, markets closed in the red. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets gained momentum and returned to all-time highs.

    Key Events to Watch This Week

    This week kicks off with the Labor Day holiday, but the main highlight will be Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Friday, when the U.S. payroll report is released. All eyes will be on this data, and I expect the market to position itself ahead of Friday.

    Other important economic events include:

    • Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI
    • Wednesday: JOLTS Job Openings
    • Thursday: Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI

    Crypto and Market Outlook

    On the crypto side, my XRP position is in drawdown, while ETH remains about 5% in profit. For equities, I expect some consolidation to start the month, with safe-haven assets likely continuing their upside. and we might get to tag along on Palladium while I monitor my risky asset position.

    Also, remember this is an FOMC meeting month, so markets may consolidate until then. As always, we don’t predict the market—we react. Patience is key. Let’s see what September brings.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on market events. Trade Ideas shared are for educational purposes only. IOY Capital is not responsible for any investment decisions you choose to make.

  • Midweek Market Recap: Trump vs. The Fed, Nvidia’s Surprise, and What’s Next

    It’s midweek, markets have closed for the day, and so far, I can confidently say: Trump really has it in for the Fed.

    Quick Recap

    The week started strong with housing data coming in at 652K, beating expectations of 635K, though slightly below the previous 656K. A positive start as markets eagerly awaited Nvidia’s earnings.

    But the real story? Trump vs. The Fed. After taking aim at Fed Chair Powell with little traction, Trump has now targeted Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud prior to her appointment. This is a big deal, investors rely on the Fed’s independence, and Trump’s decision to remove her pending investigation raises serious concerns.

    We’ve also seen headlines about:

    • Trump plans a White House meeting on Gaza ahead of the UN summit in September.
    • Advocating for oil prices to hover around $60 per barrel.
    • EU considering new sanctions on Russia.
    • Mexico slapping tariffs on Chinese goods under the guise of boosting local production—a classic Trump-style move.

    And then came Nvidia’s earnings:
    Revenue hit $46.7 billion, beating estimates of $46.2 billion. Yet, the stock dropped post-report. Why? Investors expected more. Plus, we learned the U.S. government will take 15% of all Nvidia H20 sales to China—a stark reminder of the cost of doing business in the U.S.

    Market Reaction

    Since the start of the week, markets have been optimistic, as we discussed in our Market Outlook post. Equities have been pushing higher in anticipation of Nvidia’s earnings (can’t wait to see how the market opens tomorrow) and my positions are still in play.

    • ETH is up about 9% after reaching a whooping 19% on Sunday. Take profit kids
    • Closed out PALL (Palladium) at a 1.5% loss after an early-week pullback.
    • Entered a position in XRP after a dip, riding the market optimism and we are currently up about 3%

    What’s Next?

    Key events to watch:
    Thursday:

    • Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech
    • Unemployment data
    • GDP data

    Friday:

    • PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data

    I’ll be monitoring these closely while managing positions.

    Final Thoughts

    We’re sitting at all-time highs, and chatter about a looming recession or market crash is getting louder. Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire—so stay cautious and trade smart.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Trades shared are for educational purposes only. IOY Capital is not responsible for any investment decisions you choose to make.

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  • Weekly Market Recap: Powell’s Dovish Stance, PMI Data & Market Reactions

    Weekly Market Recap: Powell’s Dovish Stance, PMI Data & Market Reactions

    Phew! Every week in the financial markets feels like a battle for your mental health. Honestly, it makes sense why the TV series Billions had an in-house therapist (if you haven’t watched it yet, I highly recommend it!).

    This week’s market recap and analysis for traders covers major U.S. economic events, including Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, stronger-than-expected PMI data, and rising unemployment claims—all of which shaped market sentiment and price action.

    So what has happened so for this week ?

    Most of the action this week came from the U.S. Here are the highlights:

    • Flash PMI Data and Its Effect on Financial Markets
      We saw stronger-than-expected PMI numbers: manufacturing at 53.3, services at 55.4%. This indicates expansion in both sectors. However, the impact of Trump’s tariffs is evident, as costs are being passed on to consumers (what a surprise!).
    • Unemployment Claims and Rate Cut Expectations
      Claims came in higher than expected at 235K (previous: 226K). This suggests more people are on benefits, aligning with recent jobs data. Interestingly, this is positive for potential rate cuts.
    • Jackson Hole Symposium Highlights for Investors
      The highlight of the week! Powell essentially confirmed the Fed’s dovish stance, increasing the odds of a rate cut in the September FOMC meeting.

    Read the weekly outlook post where I shared what I was looking out for this week

    Market reaction: How Powell’s Dovish Stance Impacted Markets

    Throughout the week, the market sold to set up for buys todays. equites fell to previously broken highs, Gold and Palladium fell to support, Crypto ETH, BTC and XRP all fell to support.

    Interestingly, both risk assets and safe-haven assets declined together—unusual, but that’s the market for you.

    Today, after Powell’s speech, Dollar and Bond Yields weakened, US Indexes strengthened Traders now put about a 90% probability on a Fed rate cut in September, vs 75% before Powell’s remarks.

    Position recap

    Gold: I did not get an entry on gold this week. but we did see some upside.

    Gold and Palladium Price Analysis

    Palladium: Closed an early position at a 2% loss, re-entered, and currently up about 2%.

    Gold and Palladium Price Analysis

    Ethereum: Took a 2.5% loss early in the week, but scored a 15% win today. Thank you, Powell!

    Ethereum Price Action and Crypto Market Trends

    Looking Ahead

    I’m still keeping my current position over the weekend but I’ll be talking more on what I’m looking out for next week in the weekly outlook post.

    Till then, as usual, it’s Friday, take a break from your screen, connect with family and enjoy the weekend.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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  • What a Week! PPI Surprises, Power Moves, and Red Markets !!!

    The second half of the week came in hot, with two major events on our radar: the Producer Price Index (PPI) release and the Trump-Putin meeting.

    PPI: A Surprise Upside

    We got better-than-expected PPI data, which begs the question—are we finally seeing the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs? It’s a valid consideration, and one that could weigh heavily on policymakers as they decide whether to cut rates in September. Personally, I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes right now—lol.

    Trump Meets Putin: All Optics, No Substance

    The Trump-Putin meeting wasn’t really giving, to be honest. The most dramatic moment? Trump flexing with a stealth bomber flying over Putin’s head. That was a serious power move. But beyond the theatrics, there wasn’t much substance. We heard there was “progress,” but no concrete outcomes. Must be nice to be rich enough to fly across the globe for a meeting and leave with nothing definitive.

    Weekly Market Wrap

    Risk-on assets ended the week in the red. Equities, crypto, the DXY, and precious metals all closed lower. I wasn’t spared either—woke up to my palladium trade down 1.82%. If anyone’s hiring, I’m available!

    That’s all for this week. Enjoy your weekend, and let’s regroup on Monday for our weekly outlook.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions

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  • Midweek Market Recap: CPI, Trump, and What’s Next ?

    For the first half of the week, all eyes were on the almighty CPI. Why, you ask? Well, Trump has been putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates and hasn’t held back in expressing his views on Fed Chair Powell in the media. This comes on the heels of newly announced tariffs on various countries last week, which put the market in a cautious mood. Investors were watching closely to see if inflation would dip, potentially paving the way for a rate cut.

    What did we get?

    CPI year-over-year came in at 2.7%—lower than expected but unchanged from the previous reading. Month-over-month CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2%, but lower than the previous figure. Core CPI YoY surprised to the upside at 3.1%, while MoM was steady and met expectations.

    Stripping away the jargon: inflation data was broadly in line with market expectations. As a result, the market is now cautiously optimistic about a potential rate cut in September.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s having a good week.


    He’s gearing up for potential talks with Putin on Friday, making progress with China on tariff negotiations, and seeing an uptick in U.S. customs revenue—giving him bragging rights. He’s now claiming his tariffs aren’t inflationary and urging Powell to cut rates. Oh, and he also mentioned suing Powell over how he handled the Fed’s renovation—but that’s a story for another day.

    Back to the markets—how are they reacting, and what’s next?

    Optimism is building around a September rate cut. Treasuries are up, the dollar is down, and equities are climbing—classic signs of a risk-on environment. Looking ahead to Friday, retail sales data and the Trump-Putin conversation on Ukraine will be key. Keep an eye on oil.

    My next moves

    Like James Bond, I’m waiting patiently to catch the full risk-on wave. Markets are currently elevated—too rich for my blood. I’m cautiously long on palladium and watching closely for entry points in oil.

    Palladium

    Oil

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions

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  • Weekly Market Recap: Trump’s Friday Curveball

    It basically seems like Fridays are the days Trump decides to throw a wrench into the optimism he’s built up during the week—because seriously, what is bro talking about today?

    Let’s take a step back and review what’s happened this week. Overall, it’s been relatively light, with markets primarily focused on:

    📌 Tariff Talk: From Optimism to Uncertainty

    Trump kicked off the week with upbeat comments like:

    • “Biggest deal with Japan”
    • “Deal with the EU is making progress”

    But by Friday, the tone had shifted:

    • “Deal with Canada? Not sure.”
    • “EU deal is a 50-50.”

    A very polarized individual, I must say. To add to the confusion, Japan responded by saying Trump exaggerated the details and that no written agreement exists. So, there’s that.

    🏦 Powell and the Fed

    Trump visited the Fed’s renovation project and made remarks about Jerome Powell. As predicted, he’s backtracked on firing Powell and will likely let him finish his term.

    💼 Earnings Season Kickoff

    Earnings season began this week with mixed results:

    • Tesla fell short of projections.
    • Alphabet Inc. (Google’s parent company) exceeded consensus expectations.

    📈 Market Reaction

    Despite the mixed signals, the market maintained a risk-on mood throughout the week, ending on a positive note:

    My portfolio closed the week up 2%, thanks to the XLE trade.

    🔭 Looking Ahead

    Heading into the weekend, I’ll be watching for updates on the U.S.-EU trade talks and how markets respond in the new week.

    🧘 Weekend Vibes

    It’s the weekend—time to take a step back, relax with a glass of sparkling wine and some chicken, go for a run or a walk, and enjoy the break.

    See you next week with our weekly outlook and trade ideas.

    Cheers,
    Olakunle Yusuf

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Market Pulse: A Cautious Start to the Week

    We’re starting the week on a slow note—like a Monday morning in Lagos. But don’t be fooled, there’s still plenty happening beneath the surface. Let’s take a quick look back at last week, what’s on the radar this week, and how I’m positioning myself in the current market environment.

    🔙 Last Week in Review

    Last week, we got CPI data from both Canada and the U.S. The results? Nothing exciting. Month-over-month numbers were flat—like jollof rice without pepper. Basically, this confirmed that rate cuts are not coming anytime soon, maybe later in the year if the economy behaves.

    Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales came in stronger than expected. Americans are still spending like they don’t have rent to pay. Good for the economy, bad for those hoping for quick rate cuts.

    However, the real market focus wasn’t on the data—it was on Trump. Investors were glued to headlines about his proposed tariffs and his threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. That drama overshadowed everything else.

    📅 What’s Ahead This Week

    This week’s economic calendar is light, so attention remains on:

    • Trump’s “I might fire Powell” drama
    • Ongoing tariff negotiations
    • Powell’s speech (which ended up being empty—no economic gist)
    • The start of earnings season

    So far, nothing major has happened. Trump now says he wants Powell out in eight months—basically when his term ends. So, no real firing, just political noise. Negotiations are still dragging, and Powell’s speech today? Zero economic content. We’re now waiting for earnings to bring some real movement.

    🧠 Market Sentiment

    The market is still in risk-off mode:

    • Inflation concerns from Trump’s tariff threats are being priced in.
    • Uncertainty around Powell’s future is keeping investors cautious.
    • Overall, the market is starting the week on edge.

    📊 Technical Picture

    • Gold is testing the $3,400 level, approaching previous highs and resistance.
    • U.S. 10-Year Yields are falling and testing support levels.
    • Dollar Index (DXY) is also down, sitting at key support on the 4-hour chart.

    🔮 My Outlook

    🧩 Fundamentals

    Trump seems to be softening his tone on Powell. While there’s still risk around unresolved negotiations with the EU, talks with China appear to be progressing, and Trump sounds optimistic. If that continues, we could see a shift in market sentiment—from “God abeg” to “maybe we go dey alright.”

    📈 Technicals

    We’re at support levels for both DXY and 10-year yields, while Gold is at resistance. If earnings come in strong, I expect risk assets to move higher.

    💼 My Strategy

    I’m looking at XLE and XSD for buy opportunities. Gold hasn’t given me a good entry point yet to tag along for the, so I’m staying patient and watching closely. 

    Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this update, feel free to share it or subscribe for more weekly insights. Let’s keep making sense of the markets—one gist at a time.

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    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • 🚨 Crazy End to the week:Tariffs, Bitcoin, Oil & What Comes Next

    Tariffs, Bitcoin, Oil, and Global Tensions — Here’s What I’m Watching

    Phew. The last 48 hours have been a whirlwind. If the markets were a soap opera, this week’s episode would be titled “Tariffs, Tanks, and Token Surges.” From Trump’s tariff tantrum to Bitcoin’s moon mission, oil’s dramatic flair, and Middle Eastern tensions that just won’t quit—where do we even begin?

    Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: Now Featuring Canada

    In a move that surprised absolutely no one who’s followed Trump’s economic playbook, he’s decided to hit Canada with a 35% tariff—because nothing says “friendly neighbor” like a trade war. The announcement came via a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney (yes, the former Bank of England governor turned Canadian PM—plot twist!).

    Meanwhile, the rest of the world gets a 15% tariff starting August 1st, because apparently, global economic diplomacy is now a game of Oprah’s Favorite Things:

    “You get a tariff! You get a tariff! Everybody gets a tariff!”

    • Canada is already in talks with the U.S.
    • The EU is sharpening its negotiation pencils.
    • Expect more drama than a season finale of Succession.

    Bitcoin: To the Moon, Past Pluto, and Into Your Group Chat

    Bitcoin has officially hit an all-time high of $118,000. That’s right—while some were still debating whether crypto is “real,” it quietly liquidated millions in short positions and left skeptics clutching their fiat pearls.

    “In your faces, non-believers.” — Me, smugly sipping coffee

    With trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty swirling, Bitcoin has become the financial equivalent of a bunker stocked with canned beans and Wi-Fi. I’ve said it before: digital currency is here to stay. Time to stop ignoring it like that gym membership you swore you’d use.

    Oil & Energy: Powered by Tension and Summer Road Trips

    Oil prices and energy ETFs are climbing faster than your AC bill in July. Why?

    • Seasonal demand (hello, road trips and backyard BBQs)
    • Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels (because apparently, global shipping needed another villain)

    The result? A bullish energy sector and a lot of analysts pretending they saw this coming.

    Market Mood: Risk-Off and Running for Cover

    So, how’s the market reacting to all this chaos?

    • Gold is up 2.5% this week, because when in doubt, hoard shiny things.
    • S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all down —Wall Street’s version of a group sigh but probably dip buying on risky assets. 
    • Bitcoin is partying like it’s 2021.

    Clearly, we’re in a risk-off environment, where investors are clutching their safe havens and whispering sweet nothings to their gold bars.

    My Game Plan: Calm, Calculated, and Caffeinated

    Here’s how I’m playing this:

    • Gold: I expect cooler heads to prevail as countries dial into Trump’s hotline before the August deadline. I’m anticipating a pullback in gold and sticking to my previous plan.
    • Energy (XLE): I’m riding the XLE ETF(Halal for muslim investors) up to the 93.5 handle, unless the fundamentals change or the charts start speaking in tongues.
    • Bitcoin: We missed the ideal buy setups. Now, I’m waiting for a pullback to re-enter. No FOMO here—just patience and popcorn.

    Final Thoughts: Don’t Trade the Weekend

    It’s the weekend. No need to chase trades like they’re the last slice of pizza. Spend time with friends, family, or your favorite chart pattern. The market will still be here on Monday—probably with more drama.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Or don’t. But don’t say I didn’t warn you.

  • 📈 Trade Update: Tariffs, Safe Havens, and What Comes Next

    Following up on my earlier post — Markets, Tariffs, and a Bit of Breathing Room — I’m happy to report that we’ve hit our target on XSD, banking a solid 3% win on the trade.

    So, what’s next?

    📰 Market Recap: Tariffs, Safe Havens, and Nvidia’s Move

    Yesterday, markets reacted to Trump’s tariff announcements targeting several smaller economies. While these aren’t major players, the headlines were enough to spark a shift into safe havens like gold (XAU) and away from risk assetsincluding XSD, XLE, and SPUS.

    Interestingly, the market appears to be shrugging off the news today. One headline-grabber: Nvidia’s market cap has surged to $4 trillion — showing continued bullish sentiment in tech despite macro uncertainty.

    🏦 Fed Watch: Rate Cut Uncertainty

    The Fed statement today revealed a clear split on when rate cuts will occur. The key issue? Inflation risks from new tariffs.

    Despite June’s reported drop in inflation, the Fed is hesitant to move on cuts in July — choosing instead to watch how things develop later in the year.

    This comes even as Trump is ramping up pressure for cuts, adding another layer of political tension to the Fed’s decision-making.

    🎯 What We’re Watching Now

    The main focus going forward is twofold:

    • Tariff-related developments
    • Signals on potential rate cuts

    In this environment, I expect optimism to dominate the market — not because conditions are great, but because there’s simply no other big bearish catalyst in play right now.

    📌 Trade Setup: Gold and XLE

    🟡 Gold (XAU)

    I’m eyeing a potential buy zone in the $3,200–$3,250 handle, but only if there’s a strong fundamental bias — like further escalation in tariffs or clearer signals of rate cuts.

    🔋 XLE

    While we wait for gold to hit our levels, there may be opportunities to capitalize on market optimism via XLE. I’m watching for good entry points there.

    Stay tuned — I’ll post more detailed setups as these plays evolve.

    Disclaimer:
    This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Markets, Tariffs, and a Bit of Breathing Room. Gold sells and XSD buys

    I think most people would agree that ever since Trump became president, the world has been on a roller coaster—and it doesn’t look like the ride is ending anytime soon. But for now, we navigate the markets with a mix of swing trades and precision.

    Yesterday, Trump announced an extension of the tariff deadline to August. That move gave the markets a bit of breathing room and sparked some optimism. On that news, I looked for buying opportunities in XSD, and we’re currently up about 3%, which is a solid move.

    Things are quiet for now, so I’m holding my position. Looking ahead, we’ve got the FOMC meeting minutes coming out tomorrow. I’m not expecting any major surprises there—most signs point to the next rate cut happening in September. However, keep an eye on unemployment claims—that’s the one to watch.

    Disclaimer:
    This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.