IOY Capital

Tag: Equities

  • Midweek Market Recap: CPI, Trump, and What’s Next ?

    For the first half of the week, all eyes were on the almighty CPI. Why, you ask? Well, Trump has been putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates and hasn’t held back in expressing his views on Fed Chair Powell in the media. This comes on the heels of newly announced tariffs on various countries last week, which put the market in a cautious mood. Investors were watching closely to see if inflation would dip, potentially paving the way for a rate cut.

    What did we get?

    CPI year-over-year came in at 2.7%—lower than expected but unchanged from the previous reading. Month-over-month CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2%, but lower than the previous figure. Core CPI YoY surprised to the upside at 3.1%, while MoM was steady and met expectations.

    Stripping away the jargon: inflation data was broadly in line with market expectations. As a result, the market is now cautiously optimistic about a potential rate cut in September.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s having a good week.


    He’s gearing up for potential talks with Putin on Friday, making progress with China on tariff negotiations, and seeing an uptick in U.S. customs revenue—giving him bragging rights. He’s now claiming his tariffs aren’t inflationary and urging Powell to cut rates. Oh, and he also mentioned suing Powell over how he handled the Fed’s renovation—but that’s a story for another day.

    Back to the markets—how are they reacting, and what’s next?

    Optimism is building around a September rate cut. Treasuries are up, the dollar is down, and equities are climbing—classic signs of a risk-on environment. Looking ahead to Friday, retail sales data and the Trump-Putin conversation on Ukraine will be key. Keep an eye on oil.

    My next moves

    Like James Bond, I’m waiting patiently to catch the full risk-on wave. Markets are currently elevated—too rich for my blood. I’m cautiously long on palladium and watching closely for entry points in oil.

    Palladium

    Oil

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions

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  • 🚨 Crazy End to the week:Tariffs, Bitcoin, Oil & What Comes Next

    Tariffs, Bitcoin, Oil, and Global Tensions — Here’s What I’m Watching

    Phew. The last 48 hours have been a whirlwind. If the markets were a soap opera, this week’s episode would be titled “Tariffs, Tanks, and Token Surges.” From Trump’s tariff tantrum to Bitcoin’s moon mission, oil’s dramatic flair, and Middle Eastern tensions that just won’t quit—where do we even begin?

    Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: Now Featuring Canada

    In a move that surprised absolutely no one who’s followed Trump’s economic playbook, he’s decided to hit Canada with a 35% tariff—because nothing says “friendly neighbor” like a trade war. The announcement came via a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney (yes, the former Bank of England governor turned Canadian PM—plot twist!).

    Meanwhile, the rest of the world gets a 15% tariff starting August 1st, because apparently, global economic diplomacy is now a game of Oprah’s Favorite Things:

    “You get a tariff! You get a tariff! Everybody gets a tariff!”

    • Canada is already in talks with the U.S.
    • The EU is sharpening its negotiation pencils.
    • Expect more drama than a season finale of Succession.

    Bitcoin: To the Moon, Past Pluto, and Into Your Group Chat

    Bitcoin has officially hit an all-time high of $118,000. That’s right—while some were still debating whether crypto is “real,” it quietly liquidated millions in short positions and left skeptics clutching their fiat pearls.

    “In your faces, non-believers.” — Me, smugly sipping coffee

    With trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty swirling, Bitcoin has become the financial equivalent of a bunker stocked with canned beans and Wi-Fi. I’ve said it before: digital currency is here to stay. Time to stop ignoring it like that gym membership you swore you’d use.

    Oil & Energy: Powered by Tension and Summer Road Trips

    Oil prices and energy ETFs are climbing faster than your AC bill in July. Why?

    • Seasonal demand (hello, road trips and backyard BBQs)
    • Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels (because apparently, global shipping needed another villain)

    The result? A bullish energy sector and a lot of analysts pretending they saw this coming.

    Market Mood: Risk-Off and Running for Cover

    So, how’s the market reacting to all this chaos?

    • Gold is up 2.5% this week, because when in doubt, hoard shiny things.
    • S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all down —Wall Street’s version of a group sigh but probably dip buying on risky assets. 
    • Bitcoin is partying like it’s 2021.

    Clearly, we’re in a risk-off environment, where investors are clutching their safe havens and whispering sweet nothings to their gold bars.

    My Game Plan: Calm, Calculated, and Caffeinated

    Here’s how I’m playing this:

    • Gold: I expect cooler heads to prevail as countries dial into Trump’s hotline before the August deadline. I’m anticipating a pullback in gold and sticking to my previous plan.
    • Energy (XLE): I’m riding the XLE ETF(Halal for muslim investors) up to the 93.5 handle, unless the fundamentals change or the charts start speaking in tongues.
    • Bitcoin: We missed the ideal buy setups. Now, I’m waiting for a pullback to re-enter. No FOMO here—just patience and popcorn.

    Final Thoughts: Don’t Trade the Weekend

    It’s the weekend. No need to chase trades like they’re the last slice of pizza. Spend time with friends, family, or your favorite chart pattern. The market will still be here on Monday—probably with more drama.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Or don’t. But don’t say I didn’t warn you.