IOY Capital

Category: Weekly Outlook

  • September Market Outlook: Key Events, Trends, and What to Watch

    Welcome to a new trading week and the start of September! Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for stocks and equities, so we might be starting with a slight disadvantage.

    Last Week’s Market Recap

    Last week ended on a negative note for equities. While we saw some upside earlier in the week, markets closed in the red. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets gained momentum and returned to all-time highs.

    Key Events to Watch This Week

    This week kicks off with the Labor Day holiday, but the main highlight will be Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Friday, when the U.S. payroll report is released. All eyes will be on this data, and I expect the market to position itself ahead of Friday.

    Other important economic events include:

    • Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI
    • Wednesday: JOLTS Job Openings
    • Thursday: Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI

    Crypto and Market Outlook

    On the crypto side, my XRP position is in drawdown, while ETH remains about 5% in profit. For equities, I expect some consolidation to start the month, with safe-haven assets likely continuing their upside. and we might get to tag along on Palladium while I monitor my risky asset position.

    Also, remember this is an FOMC meeting month, so markets may consolidate until then. As always, we don’t predict the market—we react. Patience is key. Let’s see what September brings.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on market events. Trade Ideas shared are for educational purposes only. IOY Capital is not responsible for any investment decisions you choose to make.

  • Weekly Market Outlook – August 25, 2025

    Last week wrapped up on a strong note, with markets hitting new highs following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. This bullish momentum worked in favour of our positions and set a positive tone heading into the new week.

    What to Watch This Week

    Although the economic calendar looks relatively light, there are a few key events that could influence market direction:

    • Monday: Housing data release
    • Thursday:
      • Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller
      • Unemployment data
      • GDP data
    • Friday: PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data

    The PCE and unemployment figures will be crucial in shaping expectations around a potential rate cut in September. I’m particularly interested in Governor Waller’s speech, as she is reportedly one of Donald Trump’s top picks to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.

    My Personal Outlook

    This week, I’m leaning bullish—but with caution.

    I saw some upside last week with PALL and ETHE, and I’m still holding those positions (though I probably should have closed them on Friday). I’ll be monitoring the market closely and will share any new opportunities in my midweek update. currently looking to get some opportunities in Xrp to follow the trend.

    Market Sentiment & Macro Risks

    One important observation: the market is currently more stretched than during the Dotcom bubble. Several analysts are forecasting a recession within the next 12 months.

    This isn’t a reason to panic or stop trading—it’s a reminder to stay sharp, listen to market signals, and remain adaptable. Keep your ears to the ground and stay informed.

    Stay Tuned

    I’ll be back with more insights in the midweek post, including trade updates and fresh opportunities.

    🔒 Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Trades shared are for educational purposes only. IOY Capital is not responsible for any investment decisions you choose to make.

  • Weekly Market Outlook: Key Events, Positioning, and Strategy

    Last Week in Review

    The previous week delivered a mixed performance across markets, but risky assets ended on a positive note, with the S&P 500 closing up 1%. Key highlights included:

    • CPI Data: Slightly underwhelming.
    • PPI Data: Came in better than expected.
    • Trump–Putin Meeting: Offered little in terms of actionable insights.

    For a deeper dive, check out last week’s posts:

    Economic Highlights for This Week

    This week, the U.S. economic calendar is relatively light, but there are still important events to watch:

    • United States: PMI data, FOMC statement, speeches from Federal Reserve members, and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
    • Canada & Europe: Inflation data for Canada, the UK, and the Eurozone.

    Overall, I expect market consolidation with a slight upside bias. The PMI will also provide clues about the inflationary impact of Trump’s recently implemented tariffs. Additionally, I’ll be monitoring:

    • Comments from Trump and Russia following their recent meeting.
    • Statements from Federal Reserve officials.

    How I’m Positioning for the Week

    I’m focusing on three assets: Gold, Palladium, and ETH.

    Gold

    I’ll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold is currently range-bound. While there are opportunities for small gains, I generally avoid trading within ranges unless I see clearer signals during the week.

    Palladium

    Technically, Palladium is in a buying zone. I’m already in a long position (entered a bit early). I expect Palladium to benefit from uncertainty, especially since the Trump–Putin meeting didn’t provide much clarity. Russia, being a major producer of Palladium, adds to the bullish case. That said, I’m monitoring this trade cautiously.

    ETH (Ethereum)

    As a risk asset, I’m only looking for buying opportunities. There seems to be some profit-taking at the moment, but with the Fed rolling back Biden-era policies, I expect a positive impact and potential upside. However, technically, it’s not ready yet.

    Final Thoughts

    At the end of the day, we’re not market makers—we follow the trend. I’ll remain flexible and adjust as new information emerges. Let’s stay calm, avoid rushing, and aim for a profitable week.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Market Pulse: A Cautious Start to the Week

    We’re starting the week on a slow note—like a Monday morning in Lagos. But don’t be fooled, there’s still plenty happening beneath the surface. Let’s take a quick look back at last week, what’s on the radar this week, and how I’m positioning myself in the current market environment.

    🔙 Last Week in Review

    Last week, we got CPI data from both Canada and the U.S. The results? Nothing exciting. Month-over-month numbers were flat—like jollof rice without pepper. Basically, this confirmed that rate cuts are not coming anytime soon, maybe later in the year if the economy behaves.

    Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales came in stronger than expected. Americans are still spending like they don’t have rent to pay. Good for the economy, bad for those hoping for quick rate cuts.

    However, the real market focus wasn’t on the data—it was on Trump. Investors were glued to headlines about his proposed tariffs and his threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. That drama overshadowed everything else.

    📅 What’s Ahead This Week

    This week’s economic calendar is light, so attention remains on:

    • Trump’s “I might fire Powell” drama
    • Ongoing tariff negotiations
    • Powell’s speech (which ended up being empty—no economic gist)
    • The start of earnings season

    So far, nothing major has happened. Trump now says he wants Powell out in eight months—basically when his term ends. So, no real firing, just political noise. Negotiations are still dragging, and Powell’s speech today? Zero economic content. We’re now waiting for earnings to bring some real movement.

    🧠 Market Sentiment

    The market is still in risk-off mode:

    • Inflation concerns from Trump’s tariff threats are being priced in.
    • Uncertainty around Powell’s future is keeping investors cautious.
    • Overall, the market is starting the week on edge.

    📊 Technical Picture

    • Gold is testing the $3,400 level, approaching previous highs and resistance.
    • U.S. 10-Year Yields are falling and testing support levels.
    • Dollar Index (DXY) is also down, sitting at key support on the 4-hour chart.

    🔮 My Outlook

    🧩 Fundamentals

    Trump seems to be softening his tone on Powell. While there’s still risk around unresolved negotiations with the EU, talks with China appear to be progressing, and Trump sounds optimistic. If that continues, we could see a shift in market sentiment—from “God abeg” to “maybe we go dey alright.”

    📈 Technicals

    We’re at support levels for both DXY and 10-year yields, while Gold is at resistance. If earnings come in strong, I expect risk assets to move higher.

    💼 My Strategy

    I’m looking at XLE and XSD for buy opportunities. Gold hasn’t given me a good entry point yet to tag along for the, so I’m staying patient and watching closely. 

    Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this update, feel free to share it or subscribe for more weekly insights. Let’s keep making sense of the markets—one gist at a time.

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    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.