IOY Capital

Category: Mid-week Review

  • Midweek Market Recap: Trump vs. The Fed, Nvidia’s Surprise, and What’s Next

    It’s midweek, markets have closed for the day, and so far, I can confidently say: Trump really has it in for the Fed.

    Quick Recap

    The week started strong with housing data coming in at 652K, beating expectations of 635K, though slightly below the previous 656K. A positive start as markets eagerly awaited Nvidia’s earnings.

    But the real story? Trump vs. The Fed. After taking aim at Fed Chair Powell with little traction, Trump has now targeted Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud prior to her appointment. This is a big deal, investors rely on the Fed’s independence, and Trump’s decision to remove her pending investigation raises serious concerns.

    We’ve also seen headlines about:

    • Trump plans a White House meeting on Gaza ahead of the UN summit in September.
    • Advocating for oil prices to hover around $60 per barrel.
    • EU considering new sanctions on Russia.
    • Mexico slapping tariffs on Chinese goods under the guise of boosting local production—a classic Trump-style move.

    And then came Nvidia’s earnings:
    Revenue hit $46.7 billion, beating estimates of $46.2 billion. Yet, the stock dropped post-report. Why? Investors expected more. Plus, we learned the U.S. government will take 15% of all Nvidia H20 sales to China—a stark reminder of the cost of doing business in the U.S.

    Market Reaction

    Since the start of the week, markets have been optimistic, as we discussed in our Market Outlook post. Equities have been pushing higher in anticipation of Nvidia’s earnings (can’t wait to see how the market opens tomorrow) and my positions are still in play.

    • ETH is up about 9% after reaching a whooping 19% on Sunday. Take profit kids
    • Closed out PALL (Palladium) at a 1.5% loss after an early-week pullback.
    • Entered a position in XRP after a dip, riding the market optimism and we are currently up about 3%

    What’s Next?

    Key events to watch:
    Thursday:

    • Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech
    • Unemployment data
    • GDP data

    Friday:

    • PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data

    I’ll be monitoring these closely while managing positions.

    Final Thoughts

    We’re sitting at all-time highs, and chatter about a looming recession or market crash is getting louder. Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire—so stay cautious and trade smart.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Trades shared are for educational purposes only. IOY Capital is not responsible for any investment decisions you choose to make.

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  • Midweek Market Recap: CPI, Trump, and What’s Next ?

    For the first half of the week, all eyes were on the almighty CPI. Why, you ask? Well, Trump has been putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates and hasn’t held back in expressing his views on Fed Chair Powell in the media. This comes on the heels of newly announced tariffs on various countries last week, which put the market in a cautious mood. Investors were watching closely to see if inflation would dip, potentially paving the way for a rate cut.

    What did we get?

    CPI year-over-year came in at 2.7%—lower than expected but unchanged from the previous reading. Month-over-month CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2%, but lower than the previous figure. Core CPI YoY surprised to the upside at 3.1%, while MoM was steady and met expectations.

    Stripping away the jargon: inflation data was broadly in line with market expectations. As a result, the market is now cautiously optimistic about a potential rate cut in September.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s having a good week.


    He’s gearing up for potential talks with Putin on Friday, making progress with China on tariff negotiations, and seeing an uptick in U.S. customs revenue—giving him bragging rights. He’s now claiming his tariffs aren’t inflationary and urging Powell to cut rates. Oh, and he also mentioned suing Powell over how he handled the Fed’s renovation—but that’s a story for another day.

    Back to the markets—how are they reacting, and what’s next?

    Optimism is building around a September rate cut. Treasuries are up, the dollar is down, and equities are climbing—classic signs of a risk-on environment. Looking ahead to Friday, retail sales data and the Trump-Putin conversation on Ukraine will be key. Keep an eye on oil.

    My next moves

    Like James Bond, I’m waiting patiently to catch the full risk-on wave. Markets are currently elevated—too rich for my blood. I’m cautiously long on palladium and watching closely for entry points in oil.

    Palladium

    Oil

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions

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