IOY Capital

Category: End of week recap

  • Weekly Market Recap: Powell’s Dovish Stance, PMI Data & Market Reactions

    Weekly Market Recap: Powell’s Dovish Stance, PMI Data & Market Reactions

    Phew! Every week in the financial markets feels like a battle for your mental health. Honestly, it makes sense why the TV series Billions had an in-house therapist (if you haven’t watched it yet, I highly recommend it!).

    This week’s market recap and analysis for traders covers major U.S. economic events, including Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, stronger-than-expected PMI data, and rising unemployment claims—all of which shaped market sentiment and price action.

    So what has happened so for this week ?

    Most of the action this week came from the U.S. Here are the highlights:

    • Flash PMI Data and Its Effect on Financial Markets
      We saw stronger-than-expected PMI numbers: manufacturing at 53.3, services at 55.4%. This indicates expansion in both sectors. However, the impact of Trump’s tariffs is evident, as costs are being passed on to consumers (what a surprise!).
    • Unemployment Claims and Rate Cut Expectations
      Claims came in higher than expected at 235K (previous: 226K). This suggests more people are on benefits, aligning with recent jobs data. Interestingly, this is positive for potential rate cuts.
    • Jackson Hole Symposium Highlights for Investors
      The highlight of the week! Powell essentially confirmed the Fed’s dovish stance, increasing the odds of a rate cut in the September FOMC meeting.

    Read the weekly outlook post where I shared what I was looking out for this week

    Market reaction: How Powell’s Dovish Stance Impacted Markets

    Throughout the week, the market sold to set up for buys todays. equites fell to previously broken highs, Gold and Palladium fell to support, Crypto ETH, BTC and XRP all fell to support.

    Interestingly, both risk assets and safe-haven assets declined together—unusual, but that’s the market for you.

    Today, after Powell’s speech, Dollar and Bond Yields weakened, US Indexes strengthened Traders now put about a 90% probability on a Fed rate cut in September, vs 75% before Powell’s remarks.

    Position recap

    Gold: I did not get an entry on gold this week. but we did see some upside.

    Gold and Palladium Price Analysis

    Palladium: Closed an early position at a 2% loss, re-entered, and currently up about 2%.

    Gold and Palladium Price Analysis

    Ethereum: Took a 2.5% loss early in the week, but scored a 15% win today. Thank you, Powell!

    Ethereum Price Action and Crypto Market Trends

    Looking Ahead

    I’m still keeping my current position over the weekend but I’ll be talking more on what I’m looking out for next week in the weekly outlook post.

    Till then, as usual, it’s Friday, take a break from your screen, connect with family and enjoy the weekend.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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  • What a Week! PPI Surprises, Power Moves, and Red Markets !!!

    The second half of the week came in hot, with two major events on our radar: the Producer Price Index (PPI) release and the Trump-Putin meeting.

    PPI: A Surprise Upside

    We got better-than-expected PPI data, which begs the question—are we finally seeing the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs? It’s a valid consideration, and one that could weigh heavily on policymakers as they decide whether to cut rates in September. Personally, I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes right now—lol.

    Trump Meets Putin: All Optics, No Substance

    The Trump-Putin meeting wasn’t really giving, to be honest. The most dramatic moment? Trump flexing with a stealth bomber flying over Putin’s head. That was a serious power move. But beyond the theatrics, there wasn’t much substance. We heard there was “progress,” but no concrete outcomes. Must be nice to be rich enough to fly across the globe for a meeting and leave with nothing definitive.

    Weekly Market Wrap

    Risk-on assets ended the week in the red. Equities, crypto, the DXY, and precious metals all closed lower. I wasn’t spared either—woke up to my palladium trade down 1.82%. If anyone’s hiring, I’m available!

    That’s all for this week. Enjoy your weekend, and let’s regroup on Monday for our weekly outlook.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions

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  • Weekly Market Recap: Trump’s Friday Curveball

    It basically seems like Fridays are the days Trump decides to throw a wrench into the optimism he’s built up during the week—because seriously, what is bro talking about today?

    Let’s take a step back and review what’s happened this week. Overall, it’s been relatively light, with markets primarily focused on:

    📌 Tariff Talk: From Optimism to Uncertainty

    Trump kicked off the week with upbeat comments like:

    • “Biggest deal with Japan”
    • “Deal with the EU is making progress”

    But by Friday, the tone had shifted:

    • “Deal with Canada? Not sure.”
    • “EU deal is a 50-50.”

    A very polarized individual, I must say. To add to the confusion, Japan responded by saying Trump exaggerated the details and that no written agreement exists. So, there’s that.

    🏦 Powell and the Fed

    Trump visited the Fed’s renovation project and made remarks about Jerome Powell. As predicted, he’s backtracked on firing Powell and will likely let him finish his term.

    💼 Earnings Season Kickoff

    Earnings season began this week with mixed results:

    • Tesla fell short of projections.
    • Alphabet Inc. (Google’s parent company) exceeded consensus expectations.

    📈 Market Reaction

    Despite the mixed signals, the market maintained a risk-on mood throughout the week, ending on a positive note:

    My portfolio closed the week up 2%, thanks to the XLE trade.

    🔭 Looking Ahead

    Heading into the weekend, I’ll be watching for updates on the U.S.-EU trade talks and how markets respond in the new week.

    🧘 Weekend Vibes

    It’s the weekend—time to take a step back, relax with a glass of sparkling wine and some chicken, go for a run or a walk, and enjoy the break.

    See you next week with our weekly outlook and trade ideas.

    Cheers,
    Olakunle Yusuf

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • 🚨 Crazy End to the week:Tariffs, Bitcoin, Oil & What Comes Next

    Tariffs, Bitcoin, Oil, and Global Tensions — Here’s What I’m Watching

    Phew. The last 48 hours have been a whirlwind. If the markets were a soap opera, this week’s episode would be titled “Tariffs, Tanks, and Token Surges.” From Trump’s tariff tantrum to Bitcoin’s moon mission, oil’s dramatic flair, and Middle Eastern tensions that just won’t quit—where do we even begin?

    Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: Now Featuring Canada

    In a move that surprised absolutely no one who’s followed Trump’s economic playbook, he’s decided to hit Canada with a 35% tariff—because nothing says “friendly neighbor” like a trade war. The announcement came via a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney (yes, the former Bank of England governor turned Canadian PM—plot twist!).

    Meanwhile, the rest of the world gets a 15% tariff starting August 1st, because apparently, global economic diplomacy is now a game of Oprah’s Favorite Things:

    “You get a tariff! You get a tariff! Everybody gets a tariff!”

    • Canada is already in talks with the U.S.
    • The EU is sharpening its negotiation pencils.
    • Expect more drama than a season finale of Succession.

    Bitcoin: To the Moon, Past Pluto, and Into Your Group Chat

    Bitcoin has officially hit an all-time high of $118,000. That’s right—while some were still debating whether crypto is “real,” it quietly liquidated millions in short positions and left skeptics clutching their fiat pearls.

    “In your faces, non-believers.” — Me, smugly sipping coffee

    With trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty swirling, Bitcoin has become the financial equivalent of a bunker stocked with canned beans and Wi-Fi. I’ve said it before: digital currency is here to stay. Time to stop ignoring it like that gym membership you swore you’d use.

    Oil & Energy: Powered by Tension and Summer Road Trips

    Oil prices and energy ETFs are climbing faster than your AC bill in July. Why?

    • Seasonal demand (hello, road trips and backyard BBQs)
    • Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels (because apparently, global shipping needed another villain)

    The result? A bullish energy sector and a lot of analysts pretending they saw this coming.

    Market Mood: Risk-Off and Running for Cover

    So, how’s the market reacting to all this chaos?

    • Gold is up 2.5% this week, because when in doubt, hoard shiny things.
    • S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all down —Wall Street’s version of a group sigh but probably dip buying on risky assets. 
    • Bitcoin is partying like it’s 2021.

    Clearly, we’re in a risk-off environment, where investors are clutching their safe havens and whispering sweet nothings to their gold bars.

    My Game Plan: Calm, Calculated, and Caffeinated

    Here’s how I’m playing this:

    • Gold: I expect cooler heads to prevail as countries dial into Trump’s hotline before the August deadline. I’m anticipating a pullback in gold and sticking to my previous plan.
    • Energy (XLE): I’m riding the XLE ETF(Halal for muslim investors) up to the 93.5 handle, unless the fundamentals change or the charts start speaking in tongues.
    • Bitcoin: We missed the ideal buy setups. Now, I’m waiting for a pullback to re-enter. No FOMO here—just patience and popcorn.

    Final Thoughts: Don’t Trade the Weekend

    It’s the weekend. No need to chase trades like they’re the last slice of pizza. Spend time with friends, family, or your favorite chart pattern. The market will still be here on Monday—probably with more drama.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Or don’t. But don’t say I didn’t warn you.