IOY Capital

Author: Ismail

  • Weekly Market Recap: Trump’s Friday Curveball

    It basically seems like Fridays are the days Trump decides to throw a wrench into the optimism he’s built up during the week—because seriously, what is bro talking about today?

    Let’s take a step back and review what’s happened this week. Overall, it’s been relatively light, with markets primarily focused on:

    📌 Tariff Talk: From Optimism to Uncertainty

    Trump kicked off the week with upbeat comments like:

    • “Biggest deal with Japan”
    • “Deal with the EU is making progress”

    But by Friday, the tone had shifted:

    • “Deal with Canada? Not sure.”
    • “EU deal is a 50-50.”

    A very polarized individual, I must say. To add to the confusion, Japan responded by saying Trump exaggerated the details and that no written agreement exists. So, there’s that.

    🏦 Powell and the Fed

    Trump visited the Fed’s renovation project and made remarks about Jerome Powell. As predicted, he’s backtracked on firing Powell and will likely let him finish his term.

    💼 Earnings Season Kickoff

    Earnings season began this week with mixed results:

    • Tesla fell short of projections.
    • Alphabet Inc. (Google’s parent company) exceeded consensus expectations.

    📈 Market Reaction

    Despite the mixed signals, the market maintained a risk-on mood throughout the week, ending on a positive note:

    My portfolio closed the week up 2%, thanks to the XLE trade.

    🔭 Looking Ahead

    Heading into the weekend, I’ll be watching for updates on the U.S.-EU trade talks and how markets respond in the new week.

    🧘 Weekend Vibes

    It’s the weekend—time to take a step back, relax with a glass of sparkling wine and some chicken, go for a run or a walk, and enjoy the break.

    See you next week with our weekly outlook and trade ideas.

    Cheers,
    Olakunle Yusuf

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Market Pulse: A Cautious Start to the Week

    We’re starting the week on a slow note—like a Monday morning in Lagos. But don’t be fooled, there’s still plenty happening beneath the surface. Let’s take a quick look back at last week, what’s on the radar this week, and how I’m positioning myself in the current market environment.

    🔙 Last Week in Review

    Last week, we got CPI data from both Canada and the U.S. The results? Nothing exciting. Month-over-month numbers were flat—like jollof rice without pepper. Basically, this confirmed that rate cuts are not coming anytime soon, maybe later in the year if the economy behaves.

    Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales came in stronger than expected. Americans are still spending like they don’t have rent to pay. Good for the economy, bad for those hoping for quick rate cuts.

    However, the real market focus wasn’t on the data—it was on Trump. Investors were glued to headlines about his proposed tariffs and his threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. That drama overshadowed everything else.

    📅 What’s Ahead This Week

    This week’s economic calendar is light, so attention remains on:

    • Trump’s “I might fire Powell” drama
    • Ongoing tariff negotiations
    • Powell’s speech (which ended up being empty—no economic gist)
    • The start of earnings season

    So far, nothing major has happened. Trump now says he wants Powell out in eight months—basically when his term ends. So, no real firing, just political noise. Negotiations are still dragging, and Powell’s speech today? Zero economic content. We’re now waiting for earnings to bring some real movement.

    🧠 Market Sentiment

    The market is still in risk-off mode:

    • Inflation concerns from Trump’s tariff threats are being priced in.
    • Uncertainty around Powell’s future is keeping investors cautious.
    • Overall, the market is starting the week on edge.

    📊 Technical Picture

    • Gold is testing the $3,400 level, approaching previous highs and resistance.
    • U.S. 10-Year Yields are falling and testing support levels.
    • Dollar Index (DXY) is also down, sitting at key support on the 4-hour chart.

    🔮 My Outlook

    🧩 Fundamentals

    Trump seems to be softening his tone on Powell. While there’s still risk around unresolved negotiations with the EU, talks with China appear to be progressing, and Trump sounds optimistic. If that continues, we could see a shift in market sentiment—from “God abeg” to “maybe we go dey alright.”

    📈 Technicals

    We’re at support levels for both DXY and 10-year yields, while Gold is at resistance. If earnings come in strong, I expect risk assets to move higher.

    💼 My Strategy

    I’m looking at XLE and XSD for buy opportunities. Gold hasn’t given me a good entry point yet to tag along for the, so I’m staying patient and watching closely. 

    Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this update, feel free to share it or subscribe for more weekly insights. Let’s keep making sense of the markets—one gist at a time.

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    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • 🚨 Crazy End to the week:Tariffs, Bitcoin, Oil & What Comes Next

    Tariffs, Bitcoin, Oil, and Global Tensions — Here’s What I’m Watching

    Phew. The last 48 hours have been a whirlwind. If the markets were a soap opera, this week’s episode would be titled “Tariffs, Tanks, and Token Surges.” From Trump’s tariff tantrum to Bitcoin’s moon mission, oil’s dramatic flair, and Middle Eastern tensions that just won’t quit—where do we even begin?

    Trump’s Tariff Tsunami: Now Featuring Canada

    In a move that surprised absolutely no one who’s followed Trump’s economic playbook, he’s decided to hit Canada with a 35% tariff—because nothing says “friendly neighbor” like a trade war. The announcement came via a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney (yes, the former Bank of England governor turned Canadian PM—plot twist!).

    Meanwhile, the rest of the world gets a 15% tariff starting August 1st, because apparently, global economic diplomacy is now a game of Oprah’s Favorite Things:

    “You get a tariff! You get a tariff! Everybody gets a tariff!”

    • Canada is already in talks with the U.S.
    • The EU is sharpening its negotiation pencils.
    • Expect more drama than a season finale of Succession.

    Bitcoin: To the Moon, Past Pluto, and Into Your Group Chat

    Bitcoin has officially hit an all-time high of $118,000. That’s right—while some were still debating whether crypto is “real,” it quietly liquidated millions in short positions and left skeptics clutching their fiat pearls.

    “In your faces, non-believers.” — Me, smugly sipping coffee

    With trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty swirling, Bitcoin has become the financial equivalent of a bunker stocked with canned beans and Wi-Fi. I’ve said it before: digital currency is here to stay. Time to stop ignoring it like that gym membership you swore you’d use.

    Oil & Energy: Powered by Tension and Summer Road Trips

    Oil prices and energy ETFs are climbing faster than your AC bill in July. Why?

    • Seasonal demand (hello, road trips and backyard BBQs)
    • Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels (because apparently, global shipping needed another villain)

    The result? A bullish energy sector and a lot of analysts pretending they saw this coming.

    Market Mood: Risk-Off and Running for Cover

    So, how’s the market reacting to all this chaos?

    • Gold is up 2.5% this week, because when in doubt, hoard shiny things.
    • S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all down —Wall Street’s version of a group sigh but probably dip buying on risky assets. 
    • Bitcoin is partying like it’s 2021.

    Clearly, we’re in a risk-off environment, where investors are clutching their safe havens and whispering sweet nothings to their gold bars.

    My Game Plan: Calm, Calculated, and Caffeinated

    Here’s how I’m playing this:

    • Gold: I expect cooler heads to prevail as countries dial into Trump’s hotline before the August deadline. I’m anticipating a pullback in gold and sticking to my previous plan.
    • Energy (XLE): I’m riding the XLE ETF(Halal for muslim investors) up to the 93.5 handle, unless the fundamentals change or the charts start speaking in tongues.
    • Bitcoin: We missed the ideal buy setups. Now, I’m waiting for a pullback to re-enter. No FOMO here—just patience and popcorn.

    Final Thoughts: Don’t Trade the Weekend

    It’s the weekend. No need to chase trades like they’re the last slice of pizza. Spend time with friends, family, or your favorite chart pattern. The market will still be here on Monday—probably with more drama.

    Disclaimer

    This is not financial advice. The content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Or don’t. But don’t say I didn’t warn you.

  • 📈 Trade Update: Tariffs, Safe Havens, and What Comes Next

    Following up on my earlier post — Markets, Tariffs, and a Bit of Breathing Room — I’m happy to report that we’ve hit our target on XSD, banking a solid 3% win on the trade.

    So, what’s next?

    📰 Market Recap: Tariffs, Safe Havens, and Nvidia’s Move

    Yesterday, markets reacted to Trump’s tariff announcements targeting several smaller economies. While these aren’t major players, the headlines were enough to spark a shift into safe havens like gold (XAU) and away from risk assetsincluding XSD, XLE, and SPUS.

    Interestingly, the market appears to be shrugging off the news today. One headline-grabber: Nvidia’s market cap has surged to $4 trillion — showing continued bullish sentiment in tech despite macro uncertainty.

    🏦 Fed Watch: Rate Cut Uncertainty

    The Fed statement today revealed a clear split on when rate cuts will occur. The key issue? Inflation risks from new tariffs.

    Despite June’s reported drop in inflation, the Fed is hesitant to move on cuts in July — choosing instead to watch how things develop later in the year.

    This comes even as Trump is ramping up pressure for cuts, adding another layer of political tension to the Fed’s decision-making.

    🎯 What We’re Watching Now

    The main focus going forward is twofold:

    • Tariff-related developments
    • Signals on potential rate cuts

    In this environment, I expect optimism to dominate the market — not because conditions are great, but because there’s simply no other big bearish catalyst in play right now.

    📌 Trade Setup: Gold and XLE

    🟡 Gold (XAU)

    I’m eyeing a potential buy zone in the $3,200–$3,250 handle, but only if there’s a strong fundamental bias — like further escalation in tariffs or clearer signals of rate cuts.

    🔋 XLE

    While we wait for gold to hit our levels, there may be opportunities to capitalize on market optimism via XLE. I’m watching for good entry points there.

    Stay tuned — I’ll post more detailed setups as these plays evolve.

    Disclaimer:
    This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

  • Markets, Tariffs, and a Bit of Breathing Room. Gold sells and XSD buys

    I think most people would agree that ever since Trump became president, the world has been on a roller coaster—and it doesn’t look like the ride is ending anytime soon. But for now, we navigate the markets with a mix of swing trades and precision.

    Yesterday, Trump announced an extension of the tariff deadline to August. That move gave the markets a bit of breathing room and sparked some optimism. On that news, I looked for buying opportunities in XSD, and we’re currently up about 3%, which is a solid move.

    Things are quiet for now, so I’m holding my position. Looking ahead, we’ve got the FOMC meeting minutes coming out tomorrow. I’m not expecting any major surprises there—most signs point to the next rate cut happening in September. However, keep an eye on unemployment claims—that’s the one to watch.

    Disclaimer:
    This is not financial advice. the content shared here reflects my personal opinions and observations on current market events. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.